
Cocoa Prices Jump Over 5% on El Niño Risk as Food-Inflation Pressures Resurface
Cocoa futures surged on Tuesday as traders priced in the threat of an emerging El Niño weather pattern to West African production, a move that revived attention on soft commodities as a stubborn and underappreciated input into food inflation. July ICE New York cocoa closed up 213 points, or 5.47%, while July ICE London cocoa #7 rose 163 points, or 5.50%, according to exchange pricing compiled by Barchart. The rally interrupted a stretch of weakness that had pulled the contract back toward multi-month lows, and it underscored how quickly weather risk can reassert itself in a market already operating on thin margins for error. For investors tracking the path of consumer prices, the day’s move is a reminder that the commodities feeding packaged-goods costs remain volatile even as headline inflation narratives focus elsewhere. The Weather Trigger The immediate catalyst was meteorological. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has estimated an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will form between May and July and persist through year-end, with a roughly two-in-three chance of a stronger “Super El Niño.” For West Africa, which produces the majority of the world’s cocoa, El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions that can stress trees













































