
U.S. Treasuries Rally After July Jobs Report Shows 23,000 Positions Lost, Slashing September Hike Odds
U.S. Treasuries rallied on August 7, 2026, after data showed employers cut 23,000 jobs in July, a sharp miss against economist forecasts for roughly 85,000 new positions. The report immediately reshaped bets on the Federal Reserve’s next move, sending yields lower and pushing traders to slash the odds of a September rate hike. Key Takeaways Employers cut 23,000 jobs in July, missing forecasts for roughly 85,000 new positions. May payrolls were revised down 66,000 and June’s down 37,000, totaling 103,000 fewer jobs than first reported. The two-year Treasury yield fell eight basis points to 4.16% and the 10-year rate dropped six basis points to 4.61% on August 7, 2026. Kalshi odds of the Fed holding rates steady in September jumped to 65%, while CME FedWatch odds rose to 60%. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% even as the labor force participation rate slipped to 61.4%. The reversal matters because it flips the market’s working assumption almost overnight, showing that a single weak data point can now outweigh months of steady labor-market readings in the eyes of rate traders. A day earlier, futures traders saw roughly even odds of a rate increase; by Friday afternoon, most were betting the













































