
Fed Rate Cuts Delayed as Goldman Sachs Warns of Persistent Inflation
Goldman Sachs has officially changed its prediction for when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. While many experts previously hoped for a cut in June, the bank now believes the first reduction won’t happen until September 2026. This delay is mostly because of new risks from the war between the U.S. and Iran, which has caused oil prices to spike and pushed inflation higher than expected. By pushing the timeline back, Goldman signals that the “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment is likely to stay with us through the summer. The Conflict and the Oil Shock The primary reason for this change is the ongoing geopolitical crisis in the Middle East. War often leads to uncertainty, but this specific conflict has directly hit global energy markets. Oil prices have surged as traders worry about supply blocks in the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs strategists now expect Brent crude oil to average around $98 per barrel in March and April. When oil prices go up, almost everything else becomes more expensive. This is because it costs more to transport goods to stores and more to run factories. Goldman estimates that for every 10% increase in oil prices, “headline” inflation—which includes food













































