
Saudi Aramco Warns Oil Market Won’t Normalize Until 2027 if Strait of Hormuz Stays Closed
The world’s largest oil exporter just put a hard timeline on the global energy disruption. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on May 11, 2026 that the global oil market will lose around 100 million barrels per week if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted at current rates, and that the market will not normalize until 2027 if the chokepoint stays closed beyond mid-June. The warning, delivered as the 2026 Iran war enters its third month, reshapes the planning horizon for energy markets, central banks, and multinationals. For investors who entered 2026 expecting falling oil prices and a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, the Aramco assessment confirms that both scenarios are now off the table for the foreseeable future. The 100 Million Barrel Math The Strait of Hormuz is the most consequential chokepoint in the global oil trade. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil transits the narrow waterway in peacetime, alongside major volumes of liquefied natural gas. Disruption at that scale has no clean substitute on the global supply map. Nasser’s 100 million barrel weekly figure puts numbers to what tanker tracking and shipping insurance markets have been signaling for weeks. Iranian restrictions on vessel movements, combined with insurance market pullbacks













































