
S&P 500 Rallies on Peace Talks — But Recession Probability Hits 48.6%, Moody’s Warns
Stocks jumped Wednesday as oil prices pulled back and traders weighed the possibility of a diplomatic resolution to the energy shock that has rattled markets for the better part of a month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 305.43 points, or 0.66%, closing at 46,429.49. The S&P 500 rose 0.54% to 6,591.90, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.77% to end at 21,929.83. The S&P 500 advanced for a second consecutive session this week as diplomatic signals raised cautious hopes for a reduction in energy market disruptions. Brent crude settled around $102 a barrel. Treasuries pared their March losses. Gold climbed. Wednesday’s session was, by any conventional measure, a good day for equities. But experienced portfolio managers know to read the tape carefully when relief rallies arrive in the middle of deteriorating fundamentals. The index gains are real. So is everything building beneath them. Recession Probability Is No Longer a Tail Risk — It Is the Central Debate For much of the past two years, recession probability models operated in a band near or below the 20% baseline that economists treat as ambient risk in any given 12-month window. That baseline has now been surpassed — significantly — across every major













































