
June PPI and CPI Data Signal Iran-Driven Inflation May Have Peaked, but Renewed Oil Surge Threatens a Reversal
Both major U.S. inflation gauges declined in June by more than economists expected, building the strongest statistical case in five months that the energy-driven price surge triggered by the Iran conflict may have peaked. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on July 15 that the Producer Price Index fell 0.3% in June, following a July 14 CPI report showing consumer prices dropped 0.4% for the month. Every headline and core reading beat consensus forecasts. The relief, however, rests almost entirely on a gasoline price decline that has already begun to reverse as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapses and crude oil climbs back above $85 per barrel. What Did the PPI Report Show? The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, the first negative reading in months and well below the consensus estimate of no change. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2%, also undershooting the 0.3% forecast. The BLS noted that “nearly two-thirds of the June decline in the index for final demand goods can be traced to prices for gasoline, which dropped 12%.” The PPI measures what producers pay for inputs before those













































