
Consumer Expectations Index Falls to 70.9, Below Recessionary Threshold for 14th Consecutive Month
March 2026 Conference Board data shows a deepening divergence between how Americans view the present economy and where they expect it to go — a split that carries direct implications for consumer spending, the Federal Reserve’s rate path, and Q2 market positioning. The Conference Board released its March 2026 Consumer Confidence data on Tuesday, and the headline number — a modest uptick to 91.8 from February’s 91.0 — does not capture what the report actually contains. Beneath the surface, the Expectations Index dropped another 1.7 points to 70.9, marking the 14th consecutive month the sub-index has remained below 80.0 — the threshold that has historically signaled an approaching recession within the following 6 to 12 months. The index has been below 80 since February 2025, and the Conference Board’s own historical analysis shows the average Consumer Confidence reading at the start of U.S. recessions is 101.9 — a level the headline index has not sustained since early last year. The March data was collected entirely during the U.S.-Iran war and reflects consumer psychology shaped by two simultaneous shocks: energy price acceleration and persistent tariff-driven cost pressure. The data paints a picture not of consumer collapse but of something more analytically













































