
April’s PCE Print Looks Hot. The Number Inside It Looks Suspiciously Cool.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge ran hotter in April than it has at any point in nearly three years, with headline Personal Consumption Expenditures climbing 3.8% year-over-year. That number alone, released Thursday morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, is the kind of print that would normally jam the bond market, push the dollar higher, and force a rewrite of the year-end rate path. Markets did roughly the opposite. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed at record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added five basis points. Treasury yields drifted lower across the curve. The dollar barely moved. What happened in between the print and the reaction is the only story worth telling. The Headline and the Asterisk Headline PCE rose 0.4% on the month and 3.8% from a year earlier. The annual figure is up from March’s 3.5% and sits at its highest reading since mid-2023. Goods prices alone rose 1.2% in April — the steepest goods inflation reading of the current cycle, and the clearest fingerprint of two separate forces hitting the same data: the Iran war’s pressure on energy and shipping costs, and the lagged feed-through of last year’s tariff schedule into consumer prices.













































