
Cleveland Fed Inflation Forecast Signals Reacceleration, Splits FOMC Ahead of September
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland released its August inflation forecast on August 6, projecting that inflation will reaccelerate after cooling in June. The forecast lands as the Federal Open Market Committee remains split over whether to raise interest rates at its September meeting, with money markets now treating the decision as close to a coin flip. Key Takeaways The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland released its August inflation forecast on August 6, projecting inflation will reaccelerate after cooling in June. Three of twelve FOMC voting members dissented in favor of a rate hike at the July meeting, exposing a rare split inside the committee. CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed a 55% probability of a quarter-point rate hike in September as of August 6, versus a 45% chance rates hold steady. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh made conflicting statements during his post-meeting press conference about how inflation should be measured. The Fed cut rates last year over labor market concerns but has held rates steady since, leaving little room to maneuver before September. The forecast matters because it arrives at the exact moment the FOMC needs clarity most and instead gets a mixed signal. A rebound in inflation after a soft













































