
May Retail Sales Climb 0.9%, Outpacing Forecasts and Complicating the Fed’s Rate Path
American consumers spent more aggressively in May than economists had penciled in, and the print arrives at an awkward moment for a Federal Reserve that just walked back its appetite for cuts. Retail and food services sales rose 0.9% month-over-month to $763.7 billion, according to the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report the U.S. Census Bureau released June 17. The consensus call had been for 0.5%. April’s gain, originally reported softer, was revised up to 0.4%. The data lands one day before the Federal Open Market Committee’s June statement removed prior forward guidance pointing to a cut later this year. Read together, the two releases sketch a U.S. economy in which household demand is doing more lifting than the Fed expected, even as the inflation backdrop remains uncomfortable. A Broad-Based Print, Not a One-Line Beat What separates this report from a typical headline surprise is its breadth. The control group — the slice of retail spending that excludes autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services and feeds directly into GDP estimates — rose 0.7%, far above the 0.2% economists had projected. That is the line item bond traders and Fed staff watch most closely, because it isolates discretionary spending from volatile













































