
Fed Minutes Due Wednesday as Warsh’s Communication Overhaul Leaves Markets Reading Between the Lines
The Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its June 16–17 meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, and they carry structural weight that typical minutes releases do not. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh withheld his own rate projection from the dot plot, issued a 130-word policy statement with no forward guidance, and has publicly declined to signal a rate path — leaving the minutes as the committee’s only detailed on-record statement about whether a September rate hike is coming. Key Takeaways The Federal Reserve releases FOMC minutes from its June 16–17 meeting on Wednesday, July 8 at 2 p.m. ET. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Chair Kevin Warsh did not submit a dot-plot projection, and the June statement was approximately 130 words — roughly half the length of prior statements. Nine of 18 FOMC participants projected at least one rate hike before year-end, eight projected no change, and one projected a cut, producing a 9-to-9 split on the committee’s directional outlook. The median 2026 fed funds rate projection rose to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, while core PCE inflation was revised to 3.3% from 2.7%. The CME FedWatch tool places September rate-hike odds at roughly













































