
US Recession Risk 2026: Goldman 30%, Moody’s 49% — What the Data Shows
The numbers are no longer abstract. In the span of a single month, the probability of a U.S. recession has gone from an academic discussion to a live variable repriced daily by some of the most sophisticated financial institutions in the world. Goldman Sachs sits at 30%. EY-Parthenon at 40%. Moody’s Analytics at nearly 49%. Wilmington Trust at 45%. The models are diverging — and how investors read that divergence will shape portfolio decisions for the rest of the year. The trigger is well understood. The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which began February 28, has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply normally flows. Brent crude, which traded at $72.48 on the eve of the conflict, has since surged to more than $116 per barrel as of Monday — a move of more than 60% in under five weeks. But the recession risk models diverge not because analysts disagree on the oil shock. They diverge on what happens next, and on how vulnerable the underlying U.S. economy was before the war even began. The Goldman Framework: A 30% Floor, Not a Ceiling In its weekly U.S. economics update published













































