The U.S. Census Bureau releases third-quarter 2026 e-commerce data on November 19 at 10 a.m. ET, alongside revised history back to 2015. Online sales were 17.1% of retail in the second quarter, but a June sales event and the revisions mean the Q3 comparison needs careful reading.
Key Takeaways
- Census reported second-quarter 2026 e-commerce at $340.2 billion, seasonally adjusted, or 17.1% of total retail sales.
- Revised not adjusted and adjusted e-commerce estimates covering the first quarter of 2015 through the second quarter of 2026 will appear with the November 19 release.
- A major four-day summer sales event moved from July 8 to 11 in 2025 to June 23 to 26 in 2026, placing that promotional window in the second quarter instead of the third.
- U.S. online spending across retailers during the June event reached $26.4 billion, up 9.3% from the July 2025 event, according to Adobe Analytics.
- Full-year 2025 e-commerce totaled $1,233.7 billion, up 5.4% from 2024, according to Census.
The Census Bureau Publishes Third-Quarter E-Commerce Data on November 19
The Census Bureau’s Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales report for the third quarter of 2026 is scheduled for November 19 at 10 a.m. ET. The fourth-quarter report follows on February 19, 2027. The November release lands one week before Thanksgiving weekend and two days after October’s advance retail sales report, part of the November economic calendar leading into the Fed’s December 9 decision.
The report measures online sales by firms classified in retail trade and produces national figures only, with no state-level breakdown. Its dollar values are in current dollars, not adjusted for price changes.
The Second Quarter Set the Baseline at $340.2 Billion and a 17.1% Share
The Census Bureau’s August 18 release put second-quarter 2026 e-commerce at $340.2 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis, up 3.8% from the first quarter and 12.2% from the second quarter of 2025. Total retail sales reached $1,986.5 billion, up 2.9% from the first quarter and 6.7% from a year earlier. On that basis, e-commerce accounted for 17.1% of total sales.
Not adjusted for seasonal variation, second-quarter e-commerce totaled $329.5 billion, up 9.4% from the first quarter, or 16.4% of total sales. The two measures answer different questions. The adjusted figures are the right comparison across quarters, while the not adjusted figures show actual dollars spent in a given period.
The adjusted share has moved gradually: 16.3% in the second quarter of 2025, 16.4% in the third, 16.7% in the fourth, 17.0% in the first quarter of 2026 and 17.1% in the second. For the full year 2025, Census reported e-commerce sales of $1,233.7 billion, up 5.4% from 2024.
Benchmark Revisions Will Reset the History Readers Compare Against
The November 19 release carries more than one new quarter. The Census Bureau has noted that its current e-commerce report no longer reflects its latest estimates, and that revised not adjusted and adjusted figures will appear with the third-quarter release. Its 2026 benchmark covers adjusted quarterly e-commerce estimates from the first quarter of 2015 through the second quarter of 2026.
The 17.1% second-quarter share and the 12.2% year-over-year growth rate could change once the revised history is published. Revisions are routine. The first-quarter 2026 share, for example, was first published at 16.9% and later appeared as 17.0%. Any third-quarter comparison should use the revised second-quarter figure in the November release, not the August number.
A June Sales Event Pulled Online Spending Into the Second Quarter
The calendar is the second complication. Amazon’s four-day Prime Day event ran July 8 to 11 in 2025, inside the third quarter. In 2026, it ran June 23 to 26, inside the second quarter. Other retailers scheduled competing promotions around the same window.
Adobe Analytics tracked $26.4 billion in U.S. online spending across retailers during the June 2026 event, up 9.3% from the July 2025 event’s $24.1 billion. That figure measures total online spending during those four days, not only the effect of the date change. But the move placed one of the year’s major promotional windows in the second quarter. Third-quarter e-commerce growth may look weaker against 2025, when that window fell in July, even if underlying demand held steady.
Nominal Growth Includes Higher Prices
Because Census reports e-commerce in current dollars, part of any increase reflects prices rather than volume. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that goods prices in the personal consumption expenditures index were up 3.9% year over year in September. A third-quarter growth rate near that level would suggest little change in the volume of goods sold online.
Three Numbers to Check When the Report Lands
First, the revised second-quarter share, which sets the true starting point. Second, the third-quarter adjusted share compared with that revised figure, since a flat or slightly lower share would be consistent with the June event shift. Third, year-over-year e-commerce growth compared with total retail growth, which shows whether online sales are still gaining ground once the calendar effect is considered.
The Q3 Data Feeds Small Sellers’ Holiday Channel Decisions
For small retailers deciding how much inventory and marketing budget to put online for the holidays, the report is a reference point rather than a forecast. Monthly data has shown strong spending, including August’s 1.2% jump in retail sales, while surveys have pointed to caution, with consumer confidence at its lowest reading since 2014.
Sellers comparing their own online share against the national figure should use the adjusted share for trend and their actual not adjusted sales for planning. A third-quarter share that holds near 17% after revisions would indicate that online’s gradual gain in retail is continuing into the holiday season.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, business, or investment advice. Economic data, retail sales figures, and historical estimates are subject to revisions and may not fully reflect current market conditions. Readers should consult official Census Bureau releases and other relevant sources when making business or financial decisions.
FAQs
When does the Census Bureau release Q3 2026 e-commerce data?
The Census Bureau releases its third-quarter 2026 Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales report on November 19, 2026, at 10 a.m. ET. The fourth-quarter report is scheduled for February 19, 2027.
What share of U.S. retail sales is e-commerce?
E-commerce was 17.1% of total U.S. retail sales in the second quarter of 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Census. Not adjusted, it was 16.4%.
Why could Q3 e-commerce growth look weaker in 2026?
A major four-day summer sales event moved from July in 2025 to June in 2026, placing that promotional spending in the second quarter. Benchmark revisions released November 19 may also change the comparison figures.
How much did U.S. e-commerce total in 2025?
Census reported full-year 2025 e-commerce sales of $1,233.7 billion, up 5.4% from 2024.
