The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September 2026, its lowest level since 2014, according to data released September 29. Views of current business conditions turned negative for the first time in two years. Planned spending on services declined again, which matters for small businesses heading into the fourth quarter.
Key Takeaways
- The Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6, its third straight monthly decline. The Conference Board has said a reading below 80 has often signaled a recession within a year.
- Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, and the median rose to 5.1%.
- The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months jumped 5.2 points to 68.4%.
- The Present Situation Index dropped 7.9 points to 109.3, and 20.4% of consumers described business conditions as “bad,” up from 17.3% in August.
- The labor market differential, the share saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get,” narrowed 2.5 points to +1.7%.
- The headline reading came in well below the consensus forecast of about 89.
The September Reading Broke A Pattern Of Gradual Softening
The September drop marks a sharper decline after months of gradual weakening. The Consumer Confidence Index stood at 88.6 in August after two months of smaller declines. The September survey ran from September 1 to 23, a period that included a federal funds rate hike. Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said the index “deteriorated notably” after the earlier softening.
The weakness extended to both parts of the index. Consumers rated current conditions lower and also lowered their outlook for the next six months. Net views of current business conditions fell 3.4 percentage points to -1.9%, the first negative reading since September 2024. Net expectations for business conditions fell to -9.5%, and net expectations for the labor market fell to -14.4%.
The Conference Board’s findings match other surveys. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment measure also fell in September, dropping 7% to its second-lowest reading on record.
Prices Dominated Consumer Concerns
In consumers’ own write-in responses, prices were the main concern. Peterson said references to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular reached new highs, reflecting September’s jump in fuel costs.
That concern shows up in the inflation expectations data. Average 12-month inflation expectations rose to 6.1%, and the median rose to 5.1%. For small businesses, higher expected inflation usually means customers are more sensitive to prices, compare options more, and push back more on price increases.
Households are also growing cautious about their own finances. More consumers described their family’s current financial situation as “bad” than “good,” the second time that has happened since The Conference Board added the question four years ago. Net expectations for household income stayed positive but fell 3.0 points to +2.5%.
What The Spending Plans Signal For Small Business Revenue
The survey’s spending-intention questions are especially useful for business owners planning fourth-quarter inventory and staffing.
Services Spending Is Narrowing Toward Essentials
Planned spending on services over the next six months declined again in September. The top five planned categories were restaurants, bars, and take-out; streaming, internet, and mobile services; beauty and personal care; utilities; and healthcare. Beyond those, consumers leaned toward inexpensive treats and necessities.
Planned spending fell for several discretionary services, including hotels for personal travel, movies, airfare, and amusement parks. Household maintenance, financial services, and historical sites or museums saw small increases. For service businesses, the pattern suggests demand is holding up for everyday, lower-cost categories while larger discretionary purchases are coming under more scrutiny.
Domestic Travel Holds As Foreign Travel Dips
Vacation plans held up better than other discretionary categories. The share of consumers planning a vacation in the next six months rose 0.5 points to 42.6%. All of that gain came from domestic trips, while planned travel abroad declined. For hospitality businesses that depend on regional and drive-to visitors, that is a relatively positive signal for the holiday season.
Big-Ticket Purchases Are Under Pressure
On a six-month moving average basis, plans to buy autos and homes both declined slightly. Among durable goods, furniture and smartphones remained the top planned purchases. Planned purchases of refrigerators and TV sets fell the most. Retailers selling large household items may see buyers delay those purchases into 2027.
Higher Rate Expectations Affect Business Borrowing Plans
The jump in consumers expecting higher interest rates, now 68.4%, also matters for business financing decisions. Business owners weighing equipment loans, lines of credit, or expansion financing face an environment where both consumers and borrowers are preparing for higher costs. Consumer demand for financed purchases, such as vehicles, appliances, and home improvements, often weakens when buyers expect borrowing to get more expensive.
Confidence Fell Across Age And Income Groups
The decline was broad. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence fell across all age groups and nearly all income groups. Households earning $125,000 to $149,000 had the largest drop over six months, though higher-income households overall remained more optimistic. Gen Z and Millennials continued to report the highest confidence by generation, while confidence among Generation X, Baby Boomers, and the Silent Generation continued to weaken.
For businesses serving middle- and upper-middle-income customers, the sharp drop in the $125,000 to $149,000 group is an early warning. Shoppers in that group account for much of the discretionary spending in many local markets.
The Conference Board will release its October reading on the last Tuesday of October. That report will show whether September was a one-month drop or the start of a longer decline heading into the holiday season.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is based on September 2026 consumer confidence and spending data from The Conference Board and other cited sources. Survey results reflect responses collected during the stated survey period and may not fully represent future consumer behavior or economic conditions. References to inflation expectations, interest rates, spending patterns, recession indicators, and potential effects on businesses are presented for informational context and should not be interpreted as forecasts, guarantees, or financial, investment, or business advice. Readers should consult the original sources and qualified professionals when making financial or business decisions.
FAQs
What Was The Consumer Confidence Index In September 2026?
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was 81.9 in September 2026, down 6.7 points from 88.6 in August. It was the lowest reading since 2014.
What Does An Expectations Index Below 80 Mean?
The Conference Board notes that an Expectations Index reading below 80 has often signaled a recession within the following year. The September 2026 reading was 63.6.
What Are Consumers’ Inflation Expectations For The Next 12 Months?
Average 12-month inflation expectations rose to 6.1% in September 2026, and the median rose to 5.1%. Both increased 0.3 percentage points from August.
Which Spending Categories Are Consumers Prioritizing?
The top planned services categories are restaurants and take-out, streaming and mobile services, beauty and personal care, utilities, and healthcare. Planned spending on hotels, airfare, movies, and amusement parks moderated.
When Is The Next Consumer Confidence Report?
The Conference Board publishes the Consumer Confidence Index at 10 a.m. ET on the last Tuesday of each month. The October 2026 reading will follow that schedule.
