Holiday shopping trends for 2026 point to a larger season for small businesses. Consumers plan to spend $278 billion this holiday season, with about $118 billion going to small businesses, according to an Intuit QuickBooks survey released October 19. Independent NFIB data shows owners entering the season with uncertainty well above average.
Key Takeaways
- Shoppers plan to direct 43% of their holiday budgets to small businesses on average, up from 41% in 2025 and 36% in 2024.
- 76% of small business owners expect higher holiday revenue than last year, up from 65% a year ago and 44% in 2024.
- 38% of small businesses have raised or plan to raise prices this season, and another 43% are considering it.
- Only 9% of shoppers view businesses’ price increases as fully justified, while 49% say they are not really or not at all justified.
- The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.8 points to 97.9 in September, just below its 52-year average of 98.0.
- Inflation was the single most important problem for 20% of NFIB respondents, nearly three times the 7% historical average.
Holiday Shopping Trends 2026 Point To A Larger Small Business Share
The survey’s headline figure reflects two trends moving in the same direction. Consumers expect to spend $278 billion this holiday season, up 5.7% from last year’s estimated $263 billion and up from $211 billion in 2024. At the same time, the share of that budget shoppers plan to spend at small businesses has climbed from 36% to 43% over three years. Intuit estimates the small business portion at roughly $118 billion, an 8.3% increase over last year and the highest in the survey’s three-year history.
The methodology matters for how the figures should be read. Intuit QuickBooks commissioned two online surveys in August 2026: one of 1,002 small business owners, managers and decision-makers at firms with up to 99 employees, fielded through Dynata, and one of 6,000 U.S. adults planning to shop this season, fielded through Pollfish. Results were re-weighted, and respondents were paid. The figures measure stated plans, not completed sales.
Small Business Holiday Sales Expectations Rise After A Strong 2025 Season
Owner optimism rests largely on last year’s results. In the survey, 40% of small businesses said their 2025 holiday revenue beat expectations, 51% said it landed about where they expected, and 7% said it fell short. The share of owners “very confident” that customers will spend enough to support the business rose to 43% from 39%.
Fewer owners describe the season as make-or-break. 47% call this season’s revenue critically or very important to the business, down from 59% last year. Preparation is also starting earlier: 67% had begun planning by September, compared with 64% last year and 39% in 2024.
Pricing Is Where Owner Optimism Meets Shopper Resistance
The sharpest tension in the data sits in pricing. 38% of small businesses have already raised prices or plan to this season, 43% are considering it but remain hesitant, and only 7% say costs have not risen enough to justify an increase. Shoppers are skeptical: just 9% consider those increases fully justified, and 61% say rising prices bother them at least somewhat.
Cost pressure is still moving through inventory. 48% of small businesses bought extra stock ahead of tariffs taking effect, and 36% of those say they are already restocking at noticeably higher prices. 30% have shifted to more U.S.-based suppliers. Shoppers also expect higher fulfillment costs, with 41% anticipating higher shipping and delivery charges, up from 33% last year. Those pressures arrive after September’s 3.7% annual inflation reading pushed fuel and travel costs higher.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Tells A More Cautious Story
The National Federation of Independent Business offers an independent read. Its Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.8 points in September to 97.9, one-tenth of a point below its 52-year average. The Uncertainty Index rose 1 point to 90, well above its historical average of 68. Labor quality or availability remained the top problem at 26%, and inflation followed at 20%. A net 6% of owners expect better business conditions over the next six months, down 4 points and the second straight monthly decline.
The two surveys are not in direct conflict. Intuit measured holiday-specific expectations in August across a sample that includes self-employed workers and managers, while the NFIB measures overall business conditions among its members each month. Read together, they describe owners who expect a solid season while remaining cautious about costs, hiring and the broader outlook.
Consumer Holiday Spending Splits By Age And Income
The $278 billion total masks uneven household conditions. Younger shoppers are more likely to finance purchases, with Buy Now, Pay Later use at 21% among Gen Z and 24% among Millennials, compared with 14% of Gen X and 6% of Boomers. Lower-income shoppers are nearly three times as likely as upper-income shoppers to cut back on essentials such as groceries or utilities to afford holiday spending, at 19% versus 7%, and twice as likely to take seasonal work or a side job to cover costs. Upper-income shoppers are far more likely to pay credit card balances in full each month, at 67% versus 26%.
Social Platforms And AI Change How Shoppers Find Small Businesses
Social platforms are the fastest-growing online channel for small business purchases in the survey, with 23% of shoppers naming them as the most likely place to buy, up from 20% in 2025 and 16% in 2024. AI use is rising on both sides of the transaction: 43% of consumers plan to use AI tools while shopping, and 76% of small businesses plan to use AI in holiday operations. Only 15% of shoppers have let an AI assistant complete a purchase, and half say they would not be comfortable doing so. 46% of small businesses have already taken steps to appear in AI-powered search and shopping tools.
Key Dates For Small Businesses Before The Holiday Rush
Several dates will shape the season’s outcome. The Federal Reserve meets October 27 and 28, with borrowing costs for inventory and payroll financing in focus. Black Friday falls on November 27, Small Business Saturday on November 28 and Cyber Monday on November 30. The Census Bureau releases October retail sales on November 17, offering the first hard data on whether shoppers are following through on their plans.
FAQs
What Are The Expected Holiday Shopping Trends For 2026?
Consumers plan to spend $278 billion this holiday season, up 5.7% from last year, according to an Intuit QuickBooks survey. Shoppers expect to direct 43% of their budgets to small businesses, about $118 billion.
What Are The Holiday Retail Trends For 2026?
Social commerce and AI are growing. 23% of shoppers say social platforms are where they will most likely buy from small businesses online, and 43% plan to use AI shopping tools, up from 39% last year.
When Is Small Business Saturday 2026?
Small Business Saturday falls on November 28, 2026, the Saturday after Thanksgiving. Black Friday is November 27 and Cyber Monday is November 30.
What Is The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index?
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is a monthly measure of owner sentiment from the National Federation of Independent Business. It stood at 97.9 in September 2026, just below its 52-year average of 98.0.
Are Small Businesses Raising Prices For The 2026 Holidays?
Many are. 38% of small businesses have raised or plan to raise prices this season, and 43% are considering it. Only 9% of shoppers view those increases as fully justified.
