Thanksgiving 2026 travelers face a split in costs. AAA’s national gas average fell below $4 a gallon on November 10 for the first time since July, while domestic Thanksgiving airfares are up 39% from 2025, according to Hopper data. AAA’s 2026 travel forecast, due in mid-November, will show how households weigh the two.

Key Takeaways

• AAA’s national average for regular gas was $3.98 on November 10 and $3.94 on November 11, down from $4.36 a month earlier but about 87 cents above a year ago.
• Domestic Thanksgiving round-trip fares are up 39% from 2025 and international fares up as much as 30%, according to Hopper data reported by ABC News.
• Airlines for America projects nearly 29 million passengers from November 20 to 30, down from more than 31 million projected over a similar 11-day window in 2025.
• U.S. airlines are offering 38,000 more seats per day than in 2025, even as projected daily passengers fall from about 2.8 million to 2.7 million.
• Jet fuel spot prices averaged a record $4.64 a gallon in October, according to Airlines for America.
• AAA’s 2025 forecast projected a record 81.8 million Thanksgiving travelers, with nearly 90% traveling by car.

Gas Drops Below $4 but Remains Well Above Last Year

The Thanksgiving 2026 road trip is getting cheaper week by week. AAA’s national average for regular gasoline reached $3.98 on November 10, the first reading below $4 since July, and slipped to $3.94 on November 11. A week earlier the average was $4.12, and a month earlier $4.36.

The relief is relative. AAA’s year-ago average was $3.07, so drivers are still paying about 87 cents more per gallon than they did ahead of Thanksgiving 2025. Falling oil prices and the seasonal switch to cheaper winter-blend gasoline have driven the recent decline. Regional gaps remain wide: Hawaii’s average was $5.62 on November 11, and several Northeast and western states stayed above $4.

Diesel tells a similar story. AAA’s diesel average was $6.13 on November 11, below the record $6.53 set on September 22, 2026, but nearly $2.40 above a year earlier. That matters for freight and delivery costs heading into the holiday shopping season.

Airfares Climb to Decade Highs for Thanksgiving

Air travelers face the opposite trend. Domestic round-trip fares for Thanksgiving are up 39% from 2025, and international fares are up as much as 30%, according to Hopper data reported by ABC News. The same data puts Thanksgiving fares at their highest in at least 10 years, even with about 2.2% more flights scheduled than last year.

Government Price Data Shows the Same Direction

Federal data points the same way. The Bureau of Labor Statistics airline fares index rose 1.2% in September and was up 22.4% over the prior 12 months. BLS didn’t publish 12-month changes for October because it couldn’t collect October 2025 prices during that year’s lapse in appropriations, so September is the most recent year-over-year read.

Airlines Expect Fewer Passengers on More Seats

Airlines for America, the industry’s trade group, projects U.S. airlines will carry nearly 29 million passengers from November 20 to 30, 2026, about 2.7 million a day. A year earlier, the group projected more than 31 million passengers from November 21 to December 1, 2025, about 2.8 million a day.

Both windows run 11 days, which makes the comparison meaningful. Capacity, meanwhile, is still rising: airlines are offering 38,000 more seats per day than in 2025. More seats paired with fewer projected passengers suggests demand is responding to price, with some travelers trimming or rerouting holiday plans as fares rise. The group expects Sunday, November 29, and Monday, November 30, to be the busiest flying days.

Jet Fuel Costs Shape What Airlines Charge and Fly

Airlines for America ties the cost pressure to fuel. Jet fuel spot prices averaged a record $4.64 a gallon in October, topping September’s record, and fuel and labor together make up about 55% of airline operating expenses. The group says fares have risen more modestly than fuel. It says carriers are offsetting costs by reducing flight frequencies on some routes, retiring older aircraft, cutting less profitable routes and raising checked-bag fees.

The two views of airfare differ in scope. Hopper’s figures track what travelers are paying for Thanksgiving itineraries specifically. The trade group compares fares with fuel costs across the year. Both indicate that flying costs more this holiday than last.

AAA’s Forecast Will Show How Drivers Respond

AAA’s Thanksgiving forecast is the next major data point. Its 2025 forecast, released November 17, 2025, projected a record 81.8 million people traveling at least 50 miles from home between November 25 and December 1. Of those, 73.3 million, nearly 90%, were expected to drive, and 6 million to fly, up 2% from 2024.

That road-heavy mix is why the gas decline matters more to the overall picture than airfare does. If AAA’s 2026 numbers show car travel holding near last year’s record while air travel slips, it would match the price signals: a gallon of gas that’s cheaper than a month ago against plane tickets at decade highs.

 

FAQs

When will AAA release its 2026 Thanksgiving travel forecast?

AAA hasn’t released its 2026 forecast yet. Its 2025 forecast was published on November 17, so the 2026 figures are expected in mid-November.

How much is gas for Thanksgiving 2026?

AAA’s national average for regular gas was $3.94 on November 11, 2026, after falling below $4 on November 10 for the first time since July. That’s still about 87 cents higher than a year earlier.

How much have Thanksgiving airfares increased in 2026?

Domestic Thanksgiving round-trip fares are up 39% from 2025, and international fares up as much as 30%, according to Hopper data reported by ABC News.

How many people will fly for Thanksgiving 2026?

Airlines for America projects nearly 29 million passengers from November 20 to 30, about 2.7 million a day, with the busiest days expected to be November 29 and 30.

What are the busiest Thanksgiving travel days in 2026?

Airlines for America expects Sunday, November 29, and Monday, November 30, to be the busiest days for air travel this Thanksgiving.