Halloween candy spending is projected to reach $4.1 billion in 2026, up from $3.9 billion last year, according to the National Retail Federation. Shoppers are paying more even though cocoa prices have fallen from their record highs. USDA data shows sugar and sweets prices were 6.1% higher in August 2026 than a year earlier.

Key Takeaways

• USDA’s Economic Research Service forecasts sugar and sweets prices will rise 6.6% in 2026, compared with 2.4% for food-at-home prices overall.
• The World Bank’s April Commodity Markets Outlook projected cocoa prices would fall from about $7.80 per kilogram in 2025 to about $3.80 in 2026, a 51.3% decline.
• World Bank monthly data shows cocoa bottomed at $3.24 per kilogram in March 2026, then rose to $5.95 by August.
• Sugar and sweets prices fell 0.3% from July to August 2026, the first monthly decline in this cycle of USDA data.
• The National Confectioners Association reported record U.S. confectionery sales of $55 billion in 2025.
• Valentine’s Day, Easter, Halloween, and the winter holidays together accounted for 63% of 2025 confectionery sales.

Candy Inflation Outpaces the Grocery Basket

Candy remains one of the clearest examples of persistent food inflation. The USDA Economic Research Service’s September 2026 Food Price Outlook shows sugar and sweets prices were 6.1% higher in August than a year earlier, after a 7.4% year-over-year rise in July. The agency says most of the increase comes from candy and chewing gum, the subcategory that includes most chocolate candy.

For the full year, ERS now forecasts sugar and sweets prices will rise 6.6%, with a forecast range of 5.8% to 7.4%. That is down from 7.1% in August’s forecast, but still well above the 2.4% increase expected for food-at-home prices overall. Sugar and sweets are one of seven grocery categories expected to rise faster than their 20-year historical average this year.

For Halloween shoppers, that gap matters. According to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey, 96% of consumers plan to buy candy. That makes it the most common Halloween purchase and the category where price increases reach the most households.

Why Falling Cocoa Prices Have Not Reached the Shelf

The World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook projected a sharp drop in cocoa prices. It expected the average to fall from about $7.80 per kilogram in 2025 to about $3.80 in 2026, a 51.3% decline, as global supply recovered.

The first part of that forecast arrived quickly. World Bank monthly data shows cocoa reached a 2026 low of $3.24 per kilogram in March. Retail candy prices did not follow, for two structural reasons.

Production Timelines Delay Price Relief

The first reason is timing. Halloween candy is planned, produced, and shipped months before it reaches stores. Chocolate makers typically buy cocoa well in advance to secure supply and manage costs. Much of the candy on shelves this October was made with cocoa bought when prices were far higher than the March low. Lower commodity costs take months to work through production and into retail prices.

Cocoa Has Rebounded Since Spring

The second reason is that the drop did not hold. World Bank monthly data shows cocoa climbing back to $5.95 per kilogram by August 2026, about 84% above the March low. That is still below the 2025 average, but well above the $3.80 annual average the World Bank projected in April. For manufacturers buying cocoa for the winter holidays and Valentine’s Day, the cost relief they expected in spring has partly reversed.

Higher Prices, Steady Demand

Despite elevated prices, demand has held up. The NRF projects Halloween candy spending will grow about 5%, from $3.9 billion to $4.1 billion. Total Halloween spending is expected to reach $13.5 billion. Average per-person spending is nearly flat at $115.14, compared with $114.45 in 2025.

The combination suggests that a large share of candy’s growth reflects higher prices rather than more pieces in the bowl. Consumers are protecting the tradition while adjusting how they shop. The NRF found that 31% of shoppers will comparison shop if they see higher-than-expected prices, and 26% will look for coupons or sales.

The National Confectioners Association’s data shows how much is at stake. U.S. confectionery sales reached a record $55 billion in 2025. The four major candy seasons accounted for 63% of that total. Halloween alone generated $7.4 billion in chocolate and candy sales in 2024, about 18% of annual confectionery retail sales.

What the Price Lag Means for Retailers and Small Confectioners

The gap between commodity and retail prices creates different pressures across the supply chain. Retailers selling at elevated shelf prices face shoppers who are more likely to compare prices, look for promotions, or trade down to private-label and non-chocolate options.

For small and independent confectioners, the challenge is pricing for the next season. Businesses that buy cocoa or chocolate on shorter timelines feel commodity swings sooner than large manufacturers. The spring dip may have offered brief relief, but the summer rebound means holiday and Valentine’s Day pricing will rest on costs well above the March low.

For all businesses selling confectionery, USDA’s monthly updates are worth tracking. The decline from July to August was the first monthly drop in this cycle, but one month does not make a trend. Whether candy inflation keeps easing depends on cocoa prices staying below their recent peaks long enough to reach the shelf.

 

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and summarizes data and forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, World Bank, National Retail Federation, and National Confectioners Association. Commodity prices, retail prices, and industry forecasts can change as market conditions develop. Forecasts and estimates are not guarantees of future prices, spending, or market conditions. Readers should consult the cited organizations for the latest available data.

 

FAQs

Why is Halloween candy so expensive in 2026?

Candy sold this season was largely made with cocoa bought when prices were near record highs. Cocoa also rebounded after falling in spring 2026. USDA data shows sugar and sweets prices were 6.1% higher in August 2026 than a year earlier.

How much will Americans spend on Halloween candy in 2026?

Americans are expected to spend $4.1 billion on Halloween candy in 2026, up from $3.9 billion in 2025, according to the National Retail Federation.

Have cocoa prices dropped in 2026?

Yes, but not steadily. World Bank data shows cocoa fell to $3.24 per kilogram in March 2026, then rose to $5.95 by August. The World Bank’s April outlook projected a 2026 average of about $3.80 per kilogram, down from about $7.80 in 2025.

How much are candy prices expected to rise in 2026?

USDA’s Economic Research Service forecasts sugar and sweets prices will rise 6.6% in 2026, with a forecast range of 5.8% to 7.4%. Food-at-home prices overall are forecast to rise 2.4%.

How big is the U.S. candy industry?

U.S. confectionery sales reached a record $55 billion in 2025, according to the National Confectioners Association. The four major candy seasons accounted for 63% of those sales.