July 21, 2026 - Market Daily

Consumer Pessimism Reaches Highest Level Since December 2023 Despite Rallying Stock Market

Market Daily Staff 2 on July 21, 2026

American consumers are more pessimistic about the economy than at any point since December 2023, even as the S&P 500 sits within 2% of its all-time high and corporate earnings growth tracks above 20% year-over-year. The CNBC All-America Economic Survey released July 17 found 61% of respondents hold a negative view of both current conditions and the future outlook, while nearly half reported cutting back on essential purchases including food and medical care. The same week, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index posted its strongest monthly gain since February, creating a divergence that complicates the economic picture heading into the Federal Reserve’s July 29 rate decision.

Key Takeaways

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey found 61% of respondents are pessimistic about the economy, the highest since December 2023; only 25% expressed optimism
Nearly half of respondents reported cutting back on essential purchases including food and medical care, up six percentage points from CNBC’s April survey; two-thirds are reducing discretionary spending on dining and entertainment
The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index rose 9.9% to 54.4 in July, beating all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, but remains 12% below its year-ago level; more than 70% of interviews were completed before U.S. strikes on Iran resumed July 7
Advance retail sales for June reached $768.6 billion, up 6.7% year-over-year but only 0.2% month-over-month, with online retail and motor vehicles driving gains while clothing, health care, and grocery categories declined
One-year inflation expectations fell to 4.2% from 4.6% in June but remain well above the 3.4% reading recorded in February before U.S.-Iran hostilities began

Why Are Consumers Pessimistic Despite A Strong Stock Market?

The 61% pessimism reading in the CNBC survey represents the widest gap between market performance and consumer mood since the post-pandemic inflation period. The S&P 500 has gained more than 15% year-to-date, Q2 corporate earnings are tracking above 20% growth, and unemployment remains historically low. Those indicators traditionally correlate with improving consumer confidence, but the relationship has broken down in 2026 because the gains are concentrated in asset prices and corporate balance sheets rather than in household purchasing power.

The survey of 1,000 registered voters found that the cost of everyday goods remains the dominant concern. Nearly half of respondents said they are cutting back on essential purchases, a six-percentage-point increase from CNBC’s April survey. Two-thirds reported reducing discretionary spending on dining, entertainment, and travel. The share of voters who expect economic conditions to worsen outpaced those expecting improvement by a 41-to-29 margin. Micah Roberts, a Republican pollster who worked on the survey, described the electorate as being in a distinctly sour mood heading into the midterm election cycle.

The disconnect reflects what economists have described as a “two-speed” consumer economy, where households with significant investment portfolios benefit from rising equity values while wage earners without substantial assets absorb the cumulative effect of prices that have risen more than 20% since 2020 and have not meaningfully retreated.

What Did The University Of Michigan Sentiment Index Show?

The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers <a rel=”nofollow”> posted a preliminary July reading of 54.4, up 9.9% from the June final of 49.5 and the highest level since February 2026. The result topped all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists and marked the second consecutive month of approximately 10% gains following the record low of 44.8 recorded in May.

All five index components improved. The Current Economic Conditions Index rose 15.1% to 54.9, while the Consumer Expectations Index climbed 6.5% to 54.0. Buying conditions for durable goods and year-ahead business conditions each jumped roughly 20%. The improvement was broad-based across age, income, wealth, and political affiliation, with particularly strong gains among consumers without a bachelor’s degree.

Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu attributed the rebound primarily to easing gasoline prices in recent weeks. However, Hsu cautioned that the upward momentum may prove difficult to sustain. More than 70% of the July interviews were completed before the U.S. resumed strikes on Iran on July 7 and the subsequent reacceleration in gas prices that pushed the national average back toward $4 per gallon. The sentiment index remains 12% below its July 2025 level, and one-year inflation expectations, while down to 4.2% from 4.6%, remain well above the 3.4% reading recorded before the Iran conflict began in February.

What Does The Retail Sales Data Reveal About Actual Spending?

The U.S. Census Bureau’s advance retail sales report <a rel=”nofollow”> for June showed total retail and food services sales of $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from May and 6.7% higher than June 2025. Core retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline rose 0.4%, and sales excluding gasoline stations increased 0.7%.

The category-level data revealed where consumers are drawing sharper lines. Motor vehicle dealers posted a 1.9% monthly gain. Nonstore retailers, the Census Bureau category capturing the bulk of e-commerce, also rose 1.9%, boosted in part by Amazon’s Prime Day promotional event, which ran June 23 through 26. Electronics and appliance stores gained 0.8%.

The declines told a different story. Clothing and accessories stores fell 0.3%. Health and personal care stores dropped 0.8%. Grocery sales slipped 0.4% from May. The pattern tracks closely with regional anecdotes from the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book and independent consumer surveys. New York businesses reported that luxury retailers continued to perform well, but a coffee shop operator said the average purchase amount declined, a dental practice cited increasing appointment cancellations, and auto dealers noted affordability concerns restraining new vehicle demand.

What Does The Divergence Mean For The Economy?

The gap between improving sentiment surveys and deteriorating spending behavior on essentials suggests consumers are adjusting to a permanent cost baseline rather than anticipating price relief. The University of Michigan’s five-year inflation expectation held steady at 3.3%, above the 2.8% to 3.2% range that prevailed throughout 2024. Consumers appear to have accepted that prices will not return to pre-2022 levels and are restructuring household budgets accordingly.

The spending data also complicates the Federal Reserve’s calculus ahead of its July 28-29 meeting. The 0.2% monthly retail sales gain is technically positive but represents the slowest month-over-month growth in three months. The fed funds rate remains at 3.50% to 3.75%, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has maintained a hawkish tone emphasizing that inflation remains above the 2% PCE target. The June payrolls report added only 57,000 jobs, the weakest print in months, suggesting the labor market may be cooling faster than headline unemployment figures indicate.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

FAQs

What percentage of Americans are pessimistic about the economy? The CNBC All-America Economic Survey found 61% of respondents are pessimistic about both current conditions and the future outlook, the highest since December 2023. Only 25% expressed optimism about the economy.

What is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index reading for July 2026? The preliminary reading is 54.4, up 9.9% from the June final of 49.5. The result topped all economist estimates and marks the highest level since February 2026, though the index remains 12% below its year-ago level.

Are consumers cutting back on spending? Nearly half of respondents in the CNBC survey reported reducing spending on essentials including food and medical care, up six percentage points from April. Two-thirds said they are spending less on discretionary categories like dining, entertainment, and travel.

What did the June retail sales report show? The Census Bureau reported total retail and food services sales of $768.6 billion in June, up 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. Online retail and motor vehicles drove gains, while clothing, health care, and grocery categories declined.

What are current inflation expectations? The University of Michigan’s one-year inflation expectation fell to 4.2% from 4.6% in June, while the five-year expectation held at 3.3%. Both remain above pre-Iran-conflict levels recorded in February 2026.

When is the next Federal Reserve rate decision? The FOMC meets July 28-29, with the rate decision announced at 2:00 PM ET on July 29. Market consensus expects a hold at 3.50% to 3.75%, though some traders have priced in a potential hike.

Midwest Data Center Sites Deliver a Power Cost Advantage Over Northern Virginia

Market Daily Staff on July 21, 2026

By: KeyCrew Media

When developers compare Midwest data center sites to coastal alternatives, the per-kilowatt-hour rate spread gets most of the attention. According to Logan Freeman, a real estate professional at Midwest CRE Advisors, that narrow focus leaves substantial savings on the table, because the base rate is only the beginning of the cost story. The interconnection and infrastructure costs behind the meter determine whether a deal closes or dies.

The Rate Spread Is Real, But It’s the Smaller Advantage

Kansas and Missouri consistently deliver base utility rates in the four-to-six-cent-per-kilowatt-hour range for large commercial and industrial loads, according to Freeman. Northern Virginia runs seven to nine cents, and Phoenix is trending higher as grid congestion increases. On a 50-megawatt facility running at 85% utilization, Freeman says that spread compounds meaningfully in annual operating costs, and operators notice it immediately in their power usage effectiveness calculations.

The deeper advantage, Freeman argues, is on the interconnection side. In Northern Virginia, the grid is saturated. “Dominion Energy’s queue is years long, and a developer that needs 100 megawatts in Loudoun County is looking at transmission upgrade costs that can exceed $50 million and timelines that make the project economically irrational,” Freeman says. In Kansas, Evergy has been proactively investing in transmission infrastructure, partly in response to data center demand signals. The queue is shorter, upgrade costs are lower, and utility relationships tend toward collaboration rather than rationing.

What the Pro Forma Usually Misses

Several cost lines that developers routinely undermodel can determine whether a Midwest site pencils out or not, and the omissions are not minor. Large load tariffs, which most utilities apply to customers above a certain demand threshold, carry demand charges, capacity reservation fees, and sometimes power factor penalties entirely separate from the energy rate. Freeman says a developer who stops at the kilowatt-hour rate and ignores the demand charge structure is missing a meaningful cost line.

Substation upgrade charges are the item that most frequently destroys pro formas. If a site requires a new substation or significant transformer capacity to deliver the required load, Freeman says that the cost can run from $10 million to $50 million, depending on voltage level and distance. Some utilities fund the upgrade and amortize it into the rate. Others require a developer contribution upfront. “It’s not going to appear in any published rate schedule,” Freeman says. “You have to ask the question explicitly.”

Redundancy costs add another layer. N+1 or N+2 power redundancy, which means adding one or two extra components beyond what is needed to support full capacity, is a standard requirement for most operators. Developers effectively pay for significantly more capacity than they use in steady-state operations. Freeman notes that while N+1 redundancy is cheaper and more energy-efficient than more sophisticated configurations, it still increases demand charge exposure and capital costs for electrical infrastructure in ways that casual underwriting consistently misses.

A 20-Megawatt Comparison That Closed the Argument

Freeman describes a recent evaluation involving a 20-megawatt edge deployment, a Tier III colocation facility serving enterprise clients, that had two finalist sites. One sat in an established Northern Virginia data center corridor, and the other in the Kansas City metro.

On the Virginia side, the base energy rate was approximately 8.5 cents per kilowatt-hour, with an interconnection timeline of 18 to 24 months. Land ran $800,000 to $1.2 million per acre, and the municipality offered essentially no incentive leverage. On the Kansas City side, the base energy rate was 4.7 cents per kilowatt-hour, the utility had available capacity within 90 days of commitment, and land ran $150,000 to $300,000 per acre. The project also qualified for Kansas’s SB 98, a 20-year sales tax exemption that materially affects the total cost of ownership on a large project over its operating life.

When the team ran a 10-year operating cost model at full capacity, the annual energy cost gap between the two sites was substantial. The difference in land basis offset a significant share of other project costs, and the shorter Kansas City timeline meant the operator could reach the market roughly 12 months earlier than the Virginia option.

For a developer with signed letters of intent from enterprise customers, Freeman argues that a 12-month advantage was revenue acceleration, not a theoretical benefit.

How Power Cost Translates to Asset Value

For investors unfamiliar with data center underwriting, Freeman offers a simplified framework. Electricity represents 30 to 50 percent of total operating costs at scale. When power costs drop by half on the same revenue base, net operating income expands, and a higher net operating income at a given cap rate translates directly into a higher asset valuation. That lift comes before accounting for the lower land basis, shorter construction timelines, or the tax incentive stack.

Freeman and his team at Midwest CRE Advisors work with developers evaluating five-to-50-megawatt edge deployments and enterprise infrastructure projects across Missouri and Kansas. Their role is to help operators translate utility relationships and incentive structures into underwriting assumptions that reflect actual delivered costs rather than published rate schedules.

“The Midwest seemingly has won on the fundamentals, not just on a pitch deck,” Freeman says. As grid congestion worsens in established coastal markets and developers prioritize what Freeman calls “speed to token,” the ability to deliver compute capacity to customers with immediate demand, the delivered cost advantage of Midwest sites may draw operators who previously defaulted to Virginia or Phoenix without running the full comparison.

Midwest CRE Advisors is a Kansas City-based commercial real estate firm specializing in edge data center site selection, industrial outdoor storage, and traditional CRE investment across the Midwest. The firm works with infrastructure developers, investors, and landowners across Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Iowa.

Disclaimer: This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.

Overpriced Listings in Buyer-Favorable Markets Lose Showings Within Two Weeks

Market Daily Staff on July 21, 2026

By: KeyCrew Media

When sellers insist on testing the market with an inflated asking price, they are not buying negotiating room. They are buying silence. According to Yitzchak Pierson, a real estate professional with eXp Realty, the first two weeks of a listing are the most consequential window in the entire sales process, and overpricing during that period creates a deficit that is nearly impossible to recover from.

The problem is not that buyers push back on high prices. In a market where buyers have abundant inventory to choose from, they skip the listing entirely and move on.

Why Overpricing No Longer Buys Negotiating Room

The logic behind listing high has always been that sellers need room to come down. Pierson says that logic has broken down in the current market. “The mindset of some sellers is, we’ll list high, and we’ll try to get some offers that’ll give us some wiggle room,” he says. “That’s something that we’re not really seeing: if buyers have so much inventory to choose from right now, they’re not necessarily making those offers.”

The result is a listing that sits. Once a property accumulates days on market without activity, buyers begin to assume something is wrong with it, even if the only problem was the asking price. By the time a seller agrees to a price reduction, the initial momentum a new listing generates has already dissipated. The property is no longer fresh, and the reduction itself communicates that the seller was out of touch with the market.

Pierson says this pattern is especially pronounced for properties without distinctive features that set them apart from comparable listings in the same neighborhood. “There’s nothing special about the home compared to the homes next to it or in the same neighborhood to make it stand out at a higher price point,” he says. For these homes, price is the primary differentiator, and getting it wrong from the start is particularly costly.

The 2022 Purchase Price Problem

Many current sellers bought at or near the 2022 market peak, according to Pierson. When running a comparable market analysis, he specifically looks at when a seller purchased the property and what they paid, because sellers who overpaid during the peak are often psychologically anchored to a number that no longer reflects current conditions.

“I’m seeing a lot of houses where prices were raised during 2022, so I’m taking those factors into account,” Pierson says. This anchoring effect makes it harder for sellers to accept accurate pricing guidance, even when the data clearly supports a lower number. Agents are frequently caught between what the market will bear and what a seller believes their home is worth based on what they paid.

Pricing as a Traffic Driver, Not a Starting Point

Pierson’s recommended approach reframes the purpose of the listing price entirely. Rather than treating it as an opening bid in a negotiation, he advises sellers to treat it as a mechanism for generating showing traffic. The counterintuitive implication is that pricing below comparable listings, not at them, can produce better net outcomes.

“What we should be doing is looking at the houses that are similar to that, and pricing ours at the lowest, if possible, like right underneath the lowest price point, so it drives traffic to our property,” Pierson says. “And then in that case, we have multiple viewers and potentially get multiple offers.”

He has seen this play out in desirable neighborhoods where well-prepared, competitively priced homes received multiple offers within 24 hours. The key condition is that the home must also be in strong showing condition. Pricing alone does not generate offers if the property does not hold up in person.

To support this pricing discipline, Pierson runs a seller’s net sheet that models both best-case and worst-case scenarios, accounting for title policy costs, commissions, and other closing fees. This gives sellers a concrete picture of what they will actually walk away with at different price points, grounding the conversation in financial reality rather than aspirational numbers.

How Active Listings Inform the Analysis

Pierson says many agents miss a critical step in comparable market analysis: examining not just what has sold, but what is currently sitting unsold. He uses active listings with extended days on market and price reductions as direct evidence when advising sellers against inflated asking prices.

“If homes have been sitting on the market actively for around the $430,000 price range, and they’ve been sitting for 120 days, or they’ve had multiple price reductions to get to that point, then I take that into account,” he says. A home that sold six months ago at a given price tells sellers what the market was. Homes sitting unsold today at a similar price tell them what the market is.

For sellers weighing whether to list high and adjust later, Pierson’s data suggest the strategy carries a specific cost: zero showings in the first two weeks, followed by a price reduction that arrives after the listing has already lost its novelty. Sellers who price at or just below the competitive floor on day one are the ones generating traffic, and in some cases, multiple offers within 24 hours.

About Yitzchak Pierson: Yitzchak Pierson is a licensed real estate broker in Texas, serving buyers and sellers across New Braunfels, Canyon Lake, San Marcos, and Seguin. He has been named Best Real Estate Agent in New Braunfels for two consecutive years and was ranked in the Top 100 agents by the San Antonio Business Journal.

How Serge Tagro Helps Fashion Brands Think Beyond Borders

Market Daily Staff on July 21, 2026

By: Lara Silver

International fashion producer Serge Tagro believes that global growth is not achieved by simply entering new markets. Through RunwayDiamonds, he has developed a philosophy centered on credibility, strategic partnerships, and long-term brand positioning, principles that help fashion brands expand internationally without losing their identity.

For many fashion entrepreneurs, international success is measured by geography.

A collection shown in Milan. A showroom in Paris. Retail partners in London. A growing customer base in the United States.

While these milestones are important, Serge Tagro believes they are outcomes rather than strategies.

After producing international fashion events and collaborating with designers, photographers, media professionals, and entrepreneurs through RunwayDiamonds, Serge Tagro has learned that sustainable international growth begins long before a brand enters a new country.

“An international fashion brand is not defined by how many countries know its name,” Serge Tagro says. “It is defined by whether people trust what that name represents.”

Why International Fashion Brands Start with a Clear Identity

One of the most common mistakes emerging fashion businesses make is trying to appeal to everyone.

According to Serge Tagro, the strongest international fashion brands do the opposite.

They define a clear, creative identity before they expand.

Customers remember brands that communicate a consistent vision. Editors remember designers with a recognizable aesthetic. Buyers return to companies that deliver the same level of quality season after season.

For Serge Tagro, consistency is one of the foundations of international credibility.

“Growth should never come at the expense of identity,” he explains. “Your brand must evolve without losing the values that made people notice it in the first place.”

Fashion Business Is Built on Relationships

Behind every successful fashion brand is a network of trusted relationships.

Manufacturers. Photographers. Retail partners. Editors. Stylists. Media organizations. Creative agencies.

No brand grows internationally in isolation.

This belief has shaped the development of RunwayDiamonds, where Serge Tagro has focused on connecting designers with photographers, media professionals, entrepreneurs, and international collaborators.

Rather than treating networking as a short-term objective, Serge Tagro views relationships as long-term business assets.

“The strongest partnerships are built on trust,” he says. “When people enjoy working together, opportunities continue long after the first project.”

Why Visibility Alone Is Not Enough

Modern fashion brands can reach millions of people through digital marketing.

Yet visibility does not automatically create authority.

Serge Tagro believes many businesses confuse attention with reputation.

A successful international fashion brand needs more than advertising.

It needs editorial credibility. Professional media coverage. Industry recognition. Authentic storytelling.

These elements help customers, buyers, and business partners understand what a brand sells and what it represents.

That is why RunwayDiamonds treats media as an essential part of fashion strategy rather than an optional promotional activity.

Every Market Has Its Own Fashion Culture

Expanding into a new country requires more than translating a website.

Fashion is influenced by local culture, consumer expectations, media environments, and business etiquette.

Working across different international markets has reinforced this lesson for Serge Tagro.

Whether collaborating in Los Angeles, London, or future European productions, he believes successful brands invest time in understanding local communities before expecting commercial success.

“You cannot build international relationships without first understanding the people you’re working with,” Serge Tagro says.

Respect for local culture strengthens global brands.

RunwayDiamonds Connects Fashion Communities

Through RunwayDiamonds, Serge Tagro continues to develop relationships among designers, photographers, entrepreneurs, media professionals, and luxury brands across multiple markets.

The platform was created not simply to produce fashion events, but to encourage international collaboration and create opportunities that continue after the runway.

Publicly announced plans include expanding creative partnerships between Los Angeles, London, and Milan, bringing together professionals from different sectors of the fashion industry.

For Serge Tagro, these collaborations represent more than business expansion.

They strengthen the global fashion community.

The Future of International Fashion Brands

Technology continues to make international business more accessible.

Artificial intelligence helps consumers discover new designers. Digital commerce removes geographical barriers. Media reaches global audiences instantly.

Yet Serge Tagro believes one principle will always remain unchanged.

People choose brands they trust.

That trust is built through consistency. Professionalism. Relationships. Credibility. And a clear sense of purpose.

These values continue guiding Serge Tagro as he expands RunwayDiamonds and collaborates with fashion professionals across international markets.

Because becoming an international fashion brand is not simply about crossing borders.

It is about building a reputation that travels with you.