Motivated Sellers, Patient Buyers, and Below-Replacement-Cost Assets: Why Self Storage Deal Flow Is Shifting in 2026.
After two years of constrained transaction volume, the self-storage investment market is showing signs of life. The factors that froze deal flow, a mismatch between seller expectations and buyer reality, high interest rates, and softening operating performance, have not disappeared. But the conditions that move markets are changing, and 2026 is shaping up to be a more active year than anything the sector has seen since the post-COVID run ended.
Tom de Jong, Executive Vice President at Colliers and Founding Principal of the De Jong Self Storage Team, is one of the most active self-storage brokers in the country. His current pipeline spans multiple states and asset types, and his read on the market is based on what is actually happening in conversations with buyers and sellers right now, not on projections.
Capital on the Sidelines Is Starting to Move
The dry powder story has been a feature of every market discussion for the past two years. Institutional capital was committed to self-storage, funds were structured and raised, and targets were identified. But not much actually closed.
That is beginning to change. Private equity funds that invested five or six years ago are now at or past their intended hold period. That capital was raised with a defined timeline, and when the clock runs out, the pressure to deploy or return shifts from theoretical to real. On the buy side, institutional funds with fresh capital commitments need to put that money to work. When motivated sellers and motivated buyers reach their respective inflection points at the same time, deals happen.
Notable portfolio transactions have already closed, including enterprise-level acquisitions in high-barrier markets such as the New York City boroughs, where institutional buyers stepped in to replace earlier capital partners who needed liquidity. These deals signal that the market is open for institutional-scale transactions when pricing reflects current reality.
Newly Built Assets at or Below Replacement Cost Are Drawing Interest
One of the more unusual features of the current market is the number of recently built, reasonably well-occupied assets trading at or below their cost to construct. These properties are not empty and are not in default. They are simply stabilising at rents and income levels well below what their developers projected when they broke ground.
De Jong points to a transaction his team recently evaluated in Minnesota as an example of how far the gap has widened. A facility that cost approximately $6 million to build received an offer of $4.8 million. The property was in the mid-80 percent occupancy range, but at rental rates meaningfully below the market rent assumptions that justified the original construction. The sellers ultimately pursued a different exit, but the dynamic is representative. Buyers can now access newly built assets, with no deferred maintenance, modern unit mix, and current construction standards, at prices that would have been unthinkable in 2021.
For buyers with accurate underwriting and patient capital, this is a concrete opportunity. The assets are sound and, in the right cases, well located. What has held deals back is the capital stack and sellers’ reluctance to accept what those assets are actually worth today. Both are adjusting.
Operating Metrics Are Showing Early Signs of Stabilization
The spring leasing season is a reliable indicator of where self-storage demand is headed. Historically, the warmer months drive meaningful rental activity as people move, renovate, and reorganize household storage. The last two years delivered disappointing spring and summer seasons, with brief upticks followed by pullbacks.
Early data for 2026 is more encouraging. De Jong notes that recent industry reporting from Yardi and similar tracking sources indicates the spring leasing season is off to a better start than in prior years, with more sustained optimism around rental activity through the quarter. If that holds, it would be the first clear signal that demand is genuinely recovering rather than briefly stabilizing.
Improving operating metrics matters directly to deal flow because buyers price assets based on current and near-term income. When net operating income is declining or flat, underwriting stays conservative. When operators can show that rental activity is improving and existing customer rate increases are closing the gap between achieved and market rents, the forward-looking income case for acquisition gets stronger, and more deals pencil out.
What a More Active 2026 Actually Looks Like
More active does not mean a return to 2021 conditions. Cap rates are not going back to four and a half percent, and sellers waiting for that environment are likely to wait a long time. The transaction volume building now is being driven by realistic pricing on both sides.
De Jong expects deal activity to continue accelerating through 2026 and into 2027. The volume of opinion of value requests his team is processing, a leading indicator of deal flow, has been rising. Portfolio transactions are happening, and single-asset deals are working when sellers are aligned with current market realities. For investors evaluating the sector or tracking where institutional capital is moving, the current moment represents a meaningful entry point before the broader recovery takes full hold. To explore current market insights and research from Colliers, visit Colliers Research and Insights.
About Tom de Jong: Tom de Jong is Executive Vice President at Colliers and Founding Principal of the De Jong Self Storage Team. With 19 years at Colliers, a $2B+ transaction record across 32 states, and an SIOR designation, he is one of the most recognised specialists in self-storage brokerage and investment advisory in the United States.
Disclaimer: This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.


